Iran

What their first moves will be once attacked

It is no secret that Israel wants the US to attack Iran. The two nations squared off for 12 days in June after Israel sucker punched Iran by murdering scientists and generals in their homes along with their families and neighbors. The US also dropped bunker busters on Iranian facilities and lost a 100 million dollar radar in Qatar to an announced attack by Iran.

Fast forward to Feb 2026 and the US has a carrier loaded with F-35s and B2-Bombers headed to Iran with an armada of ships. The 5th fleet is already stationed at a base in Qatar and ammo of all kinds are stored there. They also have patriot missile air defense and all of the usual jamming devices and radar.

None of this was effective in stopping all the missiles from getting through in June. Iran was able to hit Israel about 60 times with 450 missiles and a swarm of cheap drones. Only 32 did anything other than rearrange some dirt. Only one drone made it through and hit a building, but these thousand-dollar drones were being hit with million-dollar interceptors. The American base in Qatar is also in range of short-range missiles that Iran can’t use against Israel. These types of missiles Iran has in abundance.

If America or Israel attack Iran the likely response will be the same as in June as far as Israel is concerned. The American bases in Iraq have been largely abandoned and though Iran might lob some older projectiles on those bases it will focus most of the short-range stuff at the base in Qatar. Perhaps Yemen will chip in a little on Iran’s side but that is the only ally they have that is willing to fight.

They can mine the Straight of Hormuz, hit oil fields in Saudi Arabia, attack US bases in the region or even in Europe. What they will likely do is send waves of long-range missiles and drones at Israel daily just like in June. The short-range munitions will obliterate the base in Qatar, which holds 13,000 troops. I doubt they spend much effort fighting the US fleet. They know who calls the shots and Israel has to suffer in order to call of its attack dog. Therefore, it is Israel that is going to be targeted.

I think it will be like the 12 days war, but Iran will be able to score perhaps 90 to 120 hits instead of just 60. They have been prepping for this since being sucker punched. On the flip side American F-35s and a variety of cruise missiles, bombers and artillery are going to hit targets across the whole of Iran itself. It will not take long if America commits. It is like a lion vs a porcupine. The porcupine cannot kill the lion, but it can hurt him if he attacks.